Many people have asked me with the war going on in Ukraine, inflation and interest rates on the rise when do I see the market crashing or at the very least bursting.
While no one has a crystal ball, we have several things going for us that I feel will enable Florida and our area specifically to do better than most. Yes, the higher cost of living does affect the discretionary income for many, while higher interest rates will impact those when it comes to financing a home. However, Florida remains very attractive for its climate, its cost of living when compared to many northern states, and for the tax benefits to be enjoyed. In other words “weather, water, way of life!”
As I’ve mentioned many times before, ever since the onset of Covid, those moving from the north found they could work remotely and sold their homes at a much higher price than the homes they were purchasing in Florida. Most paid cash, while others only borrowed 50-60%. There were no sub-prime mortgages and over leveraging granted to buyers who, under normal circumstances, wouldn’t qualify for the loans they were seeking. From a lending point of view the banks were in much better position to sustain a real estate slow down knowing those that were approved for loans were well qualified and weren’t a great risk.
Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda specifically were considered the fastest growing areas in the country and compared to our surrounding counties, we were the “bargain” that attracted the growth. However, with that growth and low inventory levels sellers started taking full advantage of the “captive market” and property prices started to soar. Unfortunately, when prices start to take meteoric rises on properties that shouldn’t be rising to that level, that is when you can start to see some pull back. I base this more on buyer feedback than any prediction of a crash.
While Covid may still be a presence, I think more people feel they can cope with it better now than at the panic levels we have experienced the past few years. While the real estate market has become a 365 day a year business, we are starting to see some of our winter visitors heading back home to be with family for Easter. These may ease the “frenzy” a bit when it comes to bidding wars, but keep in mind a well-priced property doesn’t require a buyer to be present to submit an offer on a home, so I would still expect to see multiple offers on those properties.
So what do I see? I feel prices will remain high, but for those properties that are perceived as excessively priced, there will be price reductions as buyers are keeping an eye on those market rates and inflation. The result is they will hedge themselves a bit from going out on a limb and submitting an offer for a property that is perceived to be well over market value. Coupled with material costs to build or remodel, I feel the market will remain strong, but buyers will exhibit a bit more caution and make offers more in line for what they feel their total investment will be in a home, and not be as influenced by emotion as what we may have been experiencing.
Very few can argue that Florida affords one an incredible lifestyle, and that bodes well for our community. By comparison we are better poised for continued growth and with developers and national home builders still attracted to our area I think pricing, especially in the $250,000-600,000 will remain very competitive.
Taking a quick peak at the real estate market, it is no secret the market remains very strong with buyers competing for limited inventory. Well priced properties continue to garner multiple offers however, there is a little bit of a change in the buyer’s thought process where they are now not making offers on properties well in excess of their perception of market value. In short, the days of paying whatever a seller wants I personally feel is winding down.
The new FEMA flood changes are on everyone’s mind these day, as the increases went into effect on October 1, 2021. Instead of relying on “flood zones” as a determination of your flood exposure, the new system is referred to as “Rating 2.0,” which is a single risk modeling system that takes into consideration area and proximity to harbor, replacement coverage, frame vs. block construction along with slab vs. pilings. Also considered is prior flood loss. Banks may use flood zones, but insurance companies are going by the new rating system. So what does all of this mean you ask? Well, if you have an existing flood policy your flood insurance will increase approximately 18% per year until you reach the figure FEMA has established as the target figure for your property. If you don’t have flood insurance then you will be subject to the new valuations FEMA has established. When buying a home it is important to find out in the beginning of your negotiations if the current seller is carrying flood insurance, as this will impact your investment in the home significantly. To give you a better understanding of the difference in buying a home where the seller is carrying flood insurance verses one where they aren’t, recently we had a buyer purchasing a home on a gulf access canal. They were quoted $6,700.00 to obtain flood insurance for the home. Thankfully, the seller’s insurance carrier said their policy could be assumed, which saved our buyer a significant amount of money as the seller was paying $1,080.00 for flood insurance. It is important to find out up front when negotiating the purchase of a home if the current homeowner is carrying flood insurance and if the policy can be assumed.
While most people would like to talk about themselves, Gary and Gail have always put their clients first, and their diverse backgrounds have provided their clients an unparalleled level of service and knowledge throughout the past years.